Day Ahead Market: Hourly Pricing and Correlation with Peak Demand Hours—What Are We Seeing So Far?
On May 1st, 2025, the IESO introduced a major shift to Ontario’s electricity landscape: the Market Renewal Program and the launch of a Day Ahead Market (DAM). This wasn’t just a behind-the-scenes technical update—it fundamentally changed how electricity is scheduled and priced across the province.
And if you’re a commercial, industrial, or institutional energy user in Ontario, this change means real, tangible opportunities to take control of your electricity costs like never before.
What Is the Day Ahead Market?
The Day Ahead Market strengthens Ontario’s existing market by committing most supply a day in advance, rather than in real-time. This gives the system operator (and all of us) greater confidence that electricity will be there when it’s needed.
But the real win? Visibility and predictability.
Now, large energy consumers can see hour-by-hour electricity prices for tomorrow—today. That means you can plan operations, shift load, or make strategic decisions based on how expensive (or inexpensive) electricity is expected to be.
So, What’s Actually Happening With Prices?
At EnPowered, we’ve been tracking DAM prices vs.the final Ontario Prices. The Ontario Price is the final price paid by consumers which replaces the old Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP). It combines the day ahead price with a small adjustment to account for deviations from forecasts.Here’s what we’re seeing:
- Strong alignment: Day-ahead prices are typically within $3/MWh of real-time prices—less than a 10% variance in most cases.
- Exceptions? Spikes. The biggest deltas appear during major demand surges, like June 24th (3–9pm)—so far, the top peak demand day of the season.
We’re also noticing clear price shifts across the 24-hour day:
- Higher evening prices: What used to average $40–$50/MWh pre-market renewal is now trending at $70+/MWh.
- Lower overnight rates: Early-morning hours have become more affordable thanks to increased pricing accuracy and planning flexibility.
What This Means for Your Business
Let’s break it down:
On June 24th at 3pm, electricity cost $287.15/MWh. Thanks to DAM, customers knew the day before that the price was expected to be $207.94/MWh—perhaps not as high as the ultimate combined final price was, but a strong and actionable warning.
Now imagine you run a facility with a 2MW peak load:
- If you didn’t adjust, that hour cost you $574.30.
- Two days later, same hour, price dropped to $68.69/MWh—costing just $137.38!
That’s a 76% savings opportunity in electricity in just one hour —this is available for all commercial and industrial customers paying the Ontario Price.
The market has changed. The opportunity to save is real and immediate.
From Global Adjustment to Energy Charges—Let’s Tackle It All
For the past decade, EnPowered has helped businesses across Ontario reduce Global Adjustment costs, one of the largest line items on any industrial electricity bill.
Now, with the Day Ahead Market in full swing, we’re going after the next big line item: energy charges.
You no longer have to guess when prices will spike. You don’t need to react blindly. You can plan and act with confidence.
Try It For Yourself—Free
We’re offering a 21-day free trial of our Day Ahead Price Alerts. No guesswork. Just daily updates with tomorrow’s prices—hour by hour—so you can make informed decisions that lower your costs.
📩 Start Your Free Trial Now
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The Ontario energy market has changed. It’s time your energy strategy changed with it.